Statistical Methods: Likelihood, Bayes and Regression

Academic Year 2020/21, Term 2
Department of Mathematics, The University of Manchester

The course starts 8th February 2021 and runs for 11 weeks, plus one revision week. There is a two week term break (29 March to 9 April 2021).

Teaching staff:

Module leader, review lecture, tutorials 1, 2, 4: Korbinian Strimmer
Tutorial 3: Peter Foster
Student assistants: Ioanna Nikolopoulou (Tutorials 1, 2) and Konstantin Siroki (Tutorials 3, 4)

Overview and syllabus:

The MATH20802 module is an introductory course in statistical methods for second year mathematics students. It is designed to run over the course of 11 weeks and has three distinct parts:

Likelihood estimation and likelihood ratio tests (W1–W5)
Bayesian learning and inference (W6–W8)
Linear regression models (W9–W11)

This module focuses on conceptual understanding and methods, not on theory, As such, the presentation in this course is non-technical. The aim is to offer insights how diverse statistical approaches are linked and to demonstrate that statistics offers a concise and coherent theory of information rather than being an adhoc collection of “recipes” for data analysis (a common but wrong perception of statistics).

Flipped classroom:

The course is taught based on the principle of "flipped learning":

First, guided by the weekly learning plan the material is studied asynchroneously from lecture notes and lecture videos and by attempting questions and problems on the corresponding worksheets.
Subsequently, in synchroneous live review sessions the new material of each week is recapitulated and in live tutorials the tasks given the worksheets are discussed in an interactive fashion.

Course materials:

See also the MATH20802 UoM library reading list

To get started, download the lecture notes:

In addition, download the weekly learning plan and worksheets with solutions from Blackboard.

To help you understand the lecture notes view the associated lecture videos online:

MATH20802 lecture videos: YouTube playlist / UoM video portal

Further information such as about the midterm test, previous exam papers, feedback to students etc. is available on Blackboard.

Dates and location:

The synchronous live sessions take place at the following dates and locations:

Session	Instructor	Location	Day	Time	Semester 2 Week
Review Session	K. Strimmer	Online - Blackboard	Tuesday	5pm	1-12
Tutorial TUT/2	K. Strimmer, I. Nikolopoulou	Online - Blackboard	Wednesday	9am	2-5, 7-12
Tutorial TUT/4	K. Strimmer, I. Nikolopoulou	Online - Blackboard	Wednesday	10am	2-5, 7-12
Tutorial TUT/3	P. Foster, K. Siroki	Online - Zoom	Thursday	12noon	2-5, 7-12
Tutorial TUT/1	K. Strimmer, K. Siroki	Online - Blackboard	Thursday	1pm	2-5, 7-12

The online live sessions are mostly delivered via Blackboard using Blackboard Collaborate Ultra. If you have trouble accessing the online course room on Blackboard please check that your browser is supported by Blackboard and that it is a recent version (recommended browser on desktop: Firefox ESR). Tutorial group 3 is delivered via Zoom (for the meeting ID and password see Blackboard).

Recordings of the review lectures are available on Blackboard. The tutorial sessions are not recorded.

Assessment:

There is one in-semester assessment worth 20%. This is an online midterm test.

The end-of-semester assessment is worth the remaining 80%. It will be a 100% take home exam.

Assessment	Date	Semester 2 Week
Midterm test (20%):	From 16 March 2021, 11am (GMT) until 18 March 2021, 11am (GMT) - online test on Blackboard	Week 6
Exam (80%):	8 June 2021, 9am-12noon (BST) - take home test	Exam period

Details about the midterm test will be made available on Blackboard.

Frequently asked questions and comments:

I hope you enjoy the course! If you have any questions, comments, or corrections please contact the lecturer. First check the MATH20802 FAQ whether your question has already been asked and answered before!